Deconstructing the four fallacies of ＂decoupling theory＂

　　Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, December 26th(International Observation) Deconstructing the Four Fallacies of Decoupling Theory

　　Xinhua news agency reporter

　　Since the beginning of this year, some political and economic forces in the United States and the West, together with the media, have encouraged western enterprises to "decouple from China", and sometimes said that China’s economic fluctuations are "worrying".

　　When encouraging "decoupling from China", it tried its best to dwarf the global position of China’s economy; While hyping the so-called "China’s economy is a drag on the world", it also talks about the international influence of China’s economy. This self-inconsistent decoupling theory, like the so-called China’s economic collapse theory and threat theory, violates economic laws and is divorced from objective reality, exposing the fallacies of some western politicians’ zero-sum thinking, going against the general trend, harming others and misreading China.

　　This is the Dalanping operation area (drone photo) in Qinzhou Port Area of Beibu Gulf Port, which was taken on August 27, 2022 near the outlet of Pinglu Canal. (Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Cao Yuming)

　　The fallacy of zero-sum thinking

　　Advocating "decoupling theory" is rooted in the zero-sum thinking of some people. They can’t tolerate the success of non-Western development model, regard China as a competitor rather than a partner, and use "decoupling" as a new weapon against China.

　　Surab Gupta, a senior researcher at the Center for Sino-American Studies, an American think tank, pointed out that a few western countries promoted "decoupling" to contain China, and their zero-sum obsession was exactly the same as during the Cold War, but now western countries and China share many common interests, and it is not in the interests of all parties to handle economic and trade relations with China with zero-sum thinking.

　　On the issue of economic development, the United States and the West have always boasted that the market economy is "noble and decent", packaged the western model as the "only" development truth, used to discourse hegemony, peddled and sold the western model everywhere, and attempted to profit from it by controlling the development of other countries. Once other countries refuse to submit, they will be discredited and isolated and labeled as "non-market economy" and "distorted competition".

　　From Latin American debt trap to Russian-style "shock therapy", from Southeast Asian financial crisis to international financial crisis, from provoking trade disputes with China to advocating "decoupling theory" … … Looking back at the "history of crisis manufacturing" of American and western powers in the past decades, its black hand of instigating chaos, violating the market and creating fragmentation has never stopped.

　　During this period, China followed the laws of the market, based on the national conditions and world conditions, successfully embarked on the road of Chinese modernization, and also provided a brand-new choice for countries and nations in the world who wanted to speed up their development and maintain their independence.

　　It should be noted that if China blindly covers up the truth and slanders China’s economy without a bottom line just because it has not developed according to the western script, it will not only mislead some market players and miss the opportunity of win-win cooperation with China, but also will eventually bite the credibility of the rumor mongers themselves.

　　This is the 5th China International Import Expo(CIIE) Exhibition Area filmed on October 31st, 2022. (Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Wang Xiang)

　　The fallacy of violating the general trend

　　Some people in the West actively "build momentum" around "decoupling" from China, but ignore and go against the "general trend" of economic globalization that China’s development conforms to.

　　The 5th China International Import Expo held in November this year attracted a large number of merchants, attracting 145 countries, regions and international organizations to participate, including about 200 American enterprises. This is another footnote for economic globalization to show its resilience and vitality under the headwind of protectionism.

　　Compared with those western politicians and media who often clamor for "decoupling theory", pragmatic global enterprises actively embrace the China market with practical actions. Craig Allen, President of u.s.-china business council, said that American enterprises are very satisfied with the achievements of their participation in China International Import Expo(CIIE) in recent years, and all want to expand the exhibition area.

　　For decades, economic globalization has promoted the continuous expansion of industrial chain, value chain and supply chain, and the global flow of production factors has provided strong impetus for the world economy and converged into an irresistible trend of globalization.

　　According to data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, global trade reached US$ 28.5 trillion last year, an increase of 25% over 2020 and 13% higher than that in 2019 before the COVID-19 outbreak; The global trade volume is expected to reach a record level of about 32 trillion US dollars in 2022; Last year, the global foreign direct investment (FDI) increased by 64% to 1.58 trillion US dollars compared with 2020, which was also higher than the pre-epidemic level.

　　While the decoupling theory is heating up, the economic and trade relations between China and the West are still deepening. According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, the trade volume between China and the United States reached 4.88 trillion yuan in 2021, an increase of 20.2%; In the first 11 months of this year, the trade volume between China and the United States was 4.62 trillion yuan, up 4.8%, while the trade volume between China and Europe reached 5.17 trillion yuan, up 7.0%. China remains the largest trading partner of the EU, and the EU continues to be the second largest trading partner of China.

　　Facts have proved that the global economy is already a "community", and the attempt to achieve "winner takes all" through an exclusive agreement or a protectionist policy is neither feasible nor feasible. It is the general trend that different economies are interdependent and win-win cooperation. As Vernon Smith, the Nobel laureate in economics, said, "All countries that strive to expand trade are and will always be winners."

　　This is the Central Business District (CBD) project of Egypt’s new administrative capital, which was taken on July 19th, 2022 and undertaken by china state construction engineering corporation Egypt Branch (photo of UAV). Xinhua News Agency (Photo courtesy of China Construction Egypt)

　　The fallacy of harming others and yourself

　　Advocating "decoupling theory" reflects the plot of some people in the west to build high walls of small courtyards and enjoy development opportunities exclusively. The fact is, the more a country’s politicians are keen to advocate and practice the "decoupling theory", the more they will make their domestic enterprises and economy suffer, and the more they will add to the economic and trade partners and the world economy.

　　The report released by the American Chamber of Commerce shows that "decoupling" from China seriously threatens the interests of the United States in the fields of trade, investment, services and industry: if tariffs are imposed on all goods exported from China to the United States, the US economy will lose 190 billion US dollars every year before 2025; American investors may lose $25 billion in capital gains each year due to "decoupling", and the gross domestic product (GDP) will lose up to $500 billion … …

　　The Iff Institute for Economics, a German think tank, estimates that if EU enterprises are "decoupled" from China under American pressure, the trade volume between Germany and China will drop sharply. In the worst case, Germany’s GDP will be reduced by 0.81%, which is equivalent to six times the decline of Germany’s GDP when Britain left the European Union, or it will lead to economic downturn and mass unemployment.

　　Colin Grabots, a trade expert at the Kaito Institution in the United States, said that preventing Americans from buying foreign products or bringing other countries into the supply chain would only deprive Americans of the long-term benefits of low inflation. Mark L. Busch, a professor at Georgetown University in the United States, also believes that trying to ensure the so-called supply chain security with protectionism will only make the United States suffer more losses.

　　The Economist commented that if countries regress on the issue of globalization, it will not only seriously hurt the world economy, but also cause unforeseen new pain points.

　　In fact, the policy tendency of "decoupling" used by some American politicians is undifferentiated and expanding, and it is beginning to bite the transatlantic supply chain relationship. Domestic legislation, such as the Inflation Reduction Act recently promulgated by the United States, has a strong unilateralism and protectionism, which has aroused the concern of many western economies. Many European leaders believe that the subsidy measures involved in the relevant bill seriously distort the market and harm European interests, which may lead to "closed markets" and "destruction of key supply chains that have been hit by the epidemic".

　　This is the Pearl River flowing through the urban area of Guangzhou (photo taken on August 7, 2022), which was shot from the top of Guangzhou Tower, a landmark on the bank of the Pearl River. (Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Liu Dawei)

　　Misreading China’s fallacy

　　Advocating "decoupling theory" reflects the blind "self-confidence" of some people in the West who misread China and thought they could curb the development of China. They please domestic populist forces, constantly mislead public opinion around the topic of China, and completely ignore China’s great contribution to world economic prosperity and global supply chain stability.

　　For decades, the process of China’s economic development and prosperity is not only a win-win cooperation between China and foreign countries, but also a continuous bankruptcy process of various western fallacies such as "China collapse theory" and "China threat theory". Like all previous fallacies, "decoupling theory" is just another "reverse indicator" reflecting the real situation of China’s economy and Sino-foreign relations.

　　In the past decade, the proportion of China’s total economic output in the global economy has increased from 11.4% to more than 18%, and its contribution to world economic growth has remained at around 30% on the whole. The added value of manufacturing industry has increased from 22.5% to nearly 30% in the world, but the carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP have decreased by about 34%. Building the largest social security system in the world and building a well-off society in an all-round way has historically solved the problem of absolute poverty.

　　Today, China’s economy is on a road of higher quality, more efficient, fairer, more sustainable and safer development. Many overseas people and institutions believe that China’s economy has strong resilience, great potential and sufficient vitality, and will continue to provide a strong impetus for the recovery of the world economy.

　　Jeffrey Sachs, a famous American economist, described "decoupling theory" as "naive" and "narrow-minded". He said that the "decoupling theory" transmits "wrong information", which goes against the actual needs of the world. In the long run, the development momentum of China is "very positive". Western countries should not put pressure on China in the fields of technology and trade, or even clamor for "decoupling". Instead, they should actively cooperate with China and seek a win-win situation.

　　Sharif Ghali, head of the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of Abuja, believes that China’s influence is increasing and its position in the global supply chain cannot be replaced. The so-called "decoupling from China" is an unrealistic dream. China’s success has made developing countries’ right to speak internationally continuously, making globalization fairer and more inclusive. "Decoupling" from China means decoupling from opportunities and future.

　　Practice has proved that win-win cooperation and common development among all countries are the right way. Superstition in the law of the jungle will only aggravate the development rift, lead to polarization between the rich and the poor, widen the North-South gap and hinder global development. Only by insisting on opening up for development, holding hands instead of letting go, tearing down walls instead of building walls, replacing zero-sum games with dialogue and cooperation, and replacing closed exclusivity with openness and tolerance, can all countries gather the majestic power of win-win cooperation and walk on the bright road of common development. (Reporter: Fu Yunwei, Xu Chao, Su Liang, Yu Maofeng)